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TPB

LongInsider Cluster

Smart-money signal on TPB this 14d.

verified·b19ce271a759
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
-8.7%alpha vs SPY
Day 12 of 30
Tracking to 30D
TPB signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
16
Public Recommendation
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
May 21, 2026
Price
$91.52
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 12of 30
Next checkpoint: 15D in 3D
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7DLogged
  2. 15D+3D
  3. 30D+18D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

23 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
7 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
4 / 35
Technicals
2 / 15
Macro
3.1 / 10
Smart money7 / 40

  • TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP increased position ($44.7M) (+79%)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Renaissance Technologies LLC holds $9.1M (13F 2025-09-30)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • Citadel Advisors LLC holds $18.3M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • FMR LLC (Fidelity) holds $58.2M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +3

  • short-volume tape softening: latest 46.1% fell 14.5pp vs 20d avg 60.6%

    FINRA short interest· source

    +2
Fund. & Earn.4 / 35

  • Revenue growth 16.8% YoY (period end 2026-03-31)

    Earnings releases (8-K)· source

    +2

  • Strong ROE (22.5%)

    10-Q + 10-K· source

    +1

  • Profitable (11.5% net margin)

    10-Q + 10-K· source

    +1
Technicals2 / 15

  • RSI(14) 58.8 (elevated)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • MACD histogram 0.705 (positive)

    Price + volume· source

    +1

  • EMA stack mixed (9/21/50)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • Latest day's short ratio 46.1% (14.5pp below 20d baseline)

    Price + volume· source

    +1
Macro3.1 / 10

  • VIX 17.4 (mild) as of 2026-05-20

    Macro composite· source

    +17.4

  • 10y-2y spread 49bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-21

    Macro composite· source

    +0.49

  • Industrial Production 102.5 (mild expansion) as of 2026-04-01

    Macro composite· source

    +102.5

  • Initial claims 209,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 0.98, neutral)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.98

  • CPI YoY 3.95% (hot vs Fed target)

    Macro composite· source

    +3.95

  • HY OAS 2.80pp at 21th-pct trailing-90d (tight credit spread)

    Macro composite· source

    +2.8

  • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.16

  • Retail sales 4.87% YoY (RSAFS)

    Macro composite· source

    +4.87

  • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 53.3 (weak) as of 2026-03-01

    Macro composite· source

    +53.3

  • 10y-3m spread 89bps (positive) as of 2026-05-21

    Macro composite· source

    +0.89

  • Net liquidity (Fed assets - reverse repo - TGA) +$228B over 4 weeks (rising)

    Macro composite· source

    +1
Recommendation receipt

Source chain complete.

Recommendation cmppnerj30... collapses 1 same-day signal into one public track-record row. The raw upstream receipts are checked here before the OpenTimestamps hash below.

100.0%
linked
1
event
1
sources
1
signals
Source coverage1 / 1
SEC EDGAR 13F1/1 linked
Latest source events

  • SEC EDGAR 13F

    FILING 13F FUND FLOW · 2026-05-15· source

    raw linked
Prior source recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
SEC EDGAR 13F+1.17%
D7
+1.17%
n=92 · 61% hit
D15
n/a
D30
n/a
Prior actor recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP

13F filer

+1.55%
D7
+1.55%
n=77 · 65% hit
D15
n/a
D30
n/a
Cryptographic proof

Anchored on Bitcoin.

At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

Download .ots proofHow OpenTimestamps works

Bitcoin attested. Hash settled to block 950435.

Signal payload hash
b19ce271a75972810d6fce9fad9016b122c45daaf0f6049658f6e6738fa862b1
Timestamp
2026-05-21 23:50 UTC
Ticker
TPB
Direction
Long
Issued price
$91.52
Bitcoin block
950435