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ALRM

LongInsider Cluster

Smart-money signal on ALRM this 14d.

verified·d57b99cda407
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
+1.5%alpha vs SPY
Day 11 of 30
Tracking to 30D
ALRM signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
14
Public Recommendation
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
May 22, 2026
Price
$43.80
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 11of 30
Next checkpoint: 15D in 4D
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7DLogged
  2. 15D+4D
  3. 30D+19D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

23 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
7 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
3.3 / 35
Technicals
1 / 15
Macro
3.1 / 10
Smart money7 / 40

  • TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP increased position ($29.4M) (+120%)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Renaissance Technologies LLC holds $1.3M (13F 2025-09-30)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • Citadel Advisors LLC holds $2.3M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • FMR LLC (Fidelity) holds $41.0M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +3

  • short-volume tape softening: latest 46.3% fell 13.9pp vs 20d avg 60.2%

    FINRA short interest· source

    +2
Fund. & Earn.3.3 / 35

  • Revenue growth 11.0% YoY (period end 2026-03-31)

    Earnings releases (8-K)· source

    +1.3

  • Profitable (12.4% net margin)

    10-Q + 10-K· source

    +1

  • Forward P/E 26.3 (reasonable)

    Sector comps + FMP· source

    +1
Technicals1 / 15

  • RSI(14) 46.9 (neutral)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • MACD histogram -0.078 (negative)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • EMA stack bearish (9/21/50)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • Latest day's short ratio 46.3% (13.9pp below 20d baseline)

    Price + volume· source

    +1
Macro3.1 / 10

  • VIX 16.8 (mild) as of 2026-05-21

    Macro composite· source

    +16.8

  • 10y-2y spread 43bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-22

    Macro composite· source

    +0.43

  • Industrial Production 102.5 (mild expansion) as of 2026-04-01

    Macro composite· source

    +102.5

  • Initial claims 209,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 0.98, neutral)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.98

  • CPI YoY 3.95% (hot vs Fed target)

    Macro composite· source

    +3.95

  • HY OAS 2.78pp at 16th-pct trailing-90d (tight credit spread)

    Macro composite· source

    +2.78

  • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.16

  • Retail sales 4.87% YoY (RSAFS)

    Macro composite· source

    +4.87

  • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 49.8 (weak) as of 2026-04-01

    Macro composite· source

    +49.8

  • 10y-3m spread 88bps (positive) as of 2026-05-22

    Macro composite· source

    +0.88

  • Net liquidity (Fed assets - reverse repo - TGA) +$230B over 4 weeks (rising)

    Macro composite· source

    +1
Recommendation receipt

Source chain complete.

Recommendation cmppnerj00... collapses 1 same-day signal into one public track-record row. The raw upstream receipts are checked here before the OpenTimestamps hash below.

100.0%
linked
1
event
1
sources
1
signals
Source coverage1 / 1
SEC EDGAR 13F1/1 linked
Latest source events

  • SEC EDGAR 13F

    FILING 13F FUND FLOW · 2026-05-15· source

    raw linked
Prior source recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
SEC EDGAR 13F+0.93%
D7
+0.93%
n=95 · 59% hit
D15
n/a
D30
n/a
Prior actor recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP

13F filer

+1.30%
D7
+1.30%
n=80 · 63% hit
D15
n/a
D30
n/a
Cryptographic proof

Anchored on Bitcoin.

At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

Download .ots proofHow OpenTimestamps works

Bitcoin attested. Hash settled to block 950592.

Signal payload hash
d57b99cda40799703e2ae33077057f384deec18513d8ef6c461dae367911b770
Timestamp
2026-05-22 23:50 UTC
Ticker
ALRM
Direction
Long
Issued price
$43.80
Bitcoin block
950592