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FNV

LongInsider Cluster

Smart-money signal on FNV this 14d.

verified·04d6b289ab9b
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
+0.0%alpha vs SPY
Day 1 of 30
Tracking to 30D
FNV signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
17
Public Recommendation
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
Jun 2, 2026
Price
$228.18
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 1of 30
Next checkpoint: 7D in 6D
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7D+6D
  2. 15D+14D
  3. 30D+29D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

23 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
8 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
5 / 35
Technicals
1 / 15
Macro
3.3 / 10
Smart money8 / 40

  • TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP increased position ($319.5M) (+218%)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Renaissance Technologies LLC holds $513.7M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • American Funds Insurance Series holds $244.5M (NPORT-P 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR NPORT-P· source

    +4

  • Citadel Advisors LLC holds $251K (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • FMR LLC (Fidelity) holds $4.2B (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +3

  • short-volume tape softening: latest 34.9% fell 10.3pp vs 19d avg 45.2%

    FINRA short interest· source

    +2

  • Short interest fell -11.9% as of 2026-04-30 (twice-monthly FINRA)

    FINRA short interest· source

    +1
Fund. & Earn.5 / 35

  • Strong ROE (19.0%)

    10-Q + 10-K· source

    +1

  • Profitable (65.7% net margin)

    10-Q + 10-K· source

    +2

  • Forward P/E 24.9 (reasonable)

    Sector comps + FMP· source

    +1

  • Analyst target $300.00 >5% above 52w high

    Earnings releases (8-K)· source

    +1
Technicals1 / 15

  • Latest day's short ratio 34.9% (10.3pp below 19d baseline)

    Price + volume· source

    +1
Macro3.3 / 10

  • VIX 15.3 (low volatility) as of 2026-05-29

    Macro composite· source

    +15.3

  • 10y-2y spread 47bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-29

    Macro composite· source

    +0.47

  • Industrial Production 102.5 (mild expansion) as of 2026-04-01

    Macro composite· source

    +102.5

  • Initial claims 215,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 1.01, neutral)

    Macro composite· source

    +1.01

  • CPI YoY 3.95% (hot vs Fed target)

    Macro composite· source

    +3.95

  • HY OAS 2.74pp at 8th-pct trailing-90d (tight credit spread)

    Macro composite· source

    +2.74

  • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.16

  • Retail sales 4.87% YoY (RSAFS)

    Macro composite· source

    +4.87

  • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 49.8 (weak) as of 2026-04-01

    Macro composite· source

    +49.8

  • 10y-3m spread 76bps (positive) as of 2026-05-29

    Macro composite· source

    +0.76

  • Net liquidity (Fed assets - reverse repo - TGA) +$156B over 4 weeks (rising)

    Macro composite· source

    +1
Recommendation receipt

Source chain partially linked.

Recommendation cmpvz9cht2... collapses 1 same-day signal into one public track-record row. The raw upstream receipts are checked here before the OpenTimestamps hash below.

0.0%
linked
1
event
1
sources
1
signals
Source coverage0 / 1
SEC EDGAR 13F0/1 linked
Latest source events

  • SEC EDGAR 13F

    FILING 13F FUND FLOW · 2026-05-15

    legacy
Prior source recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
SEC EDGAR 13F+1.00%
D7
+1.00%
n=96 · 59% hit
D15
n/a
D30
n/a
Prior actor recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP

13F filer

+1.33%
D7
+1.33%
n=81 · 63% hit
D15
n/a
D30
n/a
Cryptographic proof

Proof queued.

At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

How OpenTimestamps works

Anchoring queued. Refresh after a moment to see the .ots proof.

Signal payload hash
04d6b289ab9b384e64e9fa54c291ffd753aa48eb37349ec78796db7911b289e9
Timestamp
2026-06-02 01:36 UTC
Ticker
FNV
Direction
Long
Issued price
$228.18
Bitcoin block
Queued