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PCAR

LongInsider Cluster

Smart-money signal on PCAR this 14d.

verified·1d45268839a3
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
+0.0%alpha vs SPY
Day 1 of 30
Tracking to 30D
PCAR signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
14
Public Recommendation
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
Jun 2, 2026
Price
$109.47
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 1of 30
Next checkpoint: 7D in 6D
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7D+6D
  2. 15D+14D
  3. 30D+29D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

21 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
7 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
3 / 35
Technicals
1 / 15
Macro
3.3 / 10
Smart money7 / 40

  • TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP increased position ($27.0M) (+308%)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Marshall Wace North America LP holds $115.5M (13F 2026-03-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • American Funds Insurance Series holds $31.4M (NPORT-P 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR NPORT-P· source

    +4

  • Citadel Advisors LLC holds $30.0M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Capital Group Equity ETF Trust I holds $11.2M (NPORT-P 2026-02-28)

    SEC EDGAR NPORT-P· source

    +4

  • FMR LLC (Fidelity) holds $984.4M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +3

  • short-volume tape softening: latest 43.9% fell 15.6pp vs 19d avg 59.5%

    FINRA short interest· source

    +2
Fund. & Earn.3 / 35

  • Profitable (8.9% net margin)

    10-Q + 10-K· source

    +1

  • Forward P/E 18.9 (reasonable)

    Sector comps + FMP· source

    +2
Technicals1 / 15

  • Latest day's short ratio 43.9% (15.6pp below 19d baseline)

    Price + volume· source

    +1
Macro3.3 / 10

  • VIX 15.3 (low volatility) as of 2026-05-29

    Macro composite· source

    +15.3

  • 10y-2y spread 47bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-29

    Macro composite· source

    +0.47

  • Industrial Production 102.5 (mild expansion) as of 2026-04-01

    Macro composite· source

    +102.5

  • Initial claims 215,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 1.01, neutral)

    Macro composite· source

    +1.01

  • CPI YoY 3.95% (hot vs Fed target)

    Macro composite· source

    +3.95

  • HY OAS 2.74pp at 8th-pct trailing-90d (tight credit spread)

    Macro composite· source

    +2.74

  • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.16

  • Retail sales 4.87% YoY (RSAFS)

    Macro composite· source

    +4.87

  • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 49.8 (weak) as of 2026-04-01

    Macro composite· source

    +49.8

  • 10y-3m spread 76bps (positive) as of 2026-05-29

    Macro composite· source

    +0.76

  • Net liquidity (Fed assets - reverse repo - TGA) +$156B over 4 weeks (rising)

    Macro composite· source

    +1
Recommendation receipt

Source chain partially linked.

Recommendation cmpvz9e7f2... collapses 1 same-day signal into one public track-record row. The raw upstream receipts are checked here before the OpenTimestamps hash below.

0.0%
linked
1
event
1
sources
1
signals
Source coverage0 / 1
SEC EDGAR 13F0/1 linked
Latest source events

  • SEC EDGAR 13F

    FILING 13F FUND FLOW · 2026-05-15

    legacy
Prior source recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
SEC EDGAR 13F+1.00%
D7
+1.00%
n=96 · 59% hit
D15
n/a
D30
n/a
Prior actor recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP

13F filer

+1.33%
D7
+1.33%
n=81 · 63% hit
D15
n/a
D30
n/a
Cryptographic proof

Proof queued.

At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

How OpenTimestamps works

Anchoring queued. Refresh after a moment to see the .ots proof.

Signal payload hash
1d45268839a302b3366b530845b473497a8d03d04ca855d277c154210acf93b6
Timestamp
2026-06-02 01:36 UTC
Ticker
PCAR
Direction
Long
Issued price
$109.47
Bitcoin block
Queued