AlphaYou
Sign in
All signals

SFD

LongInsider Cluster

Smart-money signal on SFD this 14d.

verified·e2ec488d475f
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
+0.0%alpha vs SPY
Day 1 of 30
Tracking to 30D
SFD signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
14
Public Recommendation
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
Jun 2, 2026
Price
$26.03
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 1of 30
Next checkpoint: 7D in 6D
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7D+6D
  2. 15D+14D
  3. 30D+29D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

21 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
7 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
4 / 35
Technicals
0 / 15
Macro
3.3 / 10
Smart money7 / 40

  • TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP increased position ($117.9M) (+201%)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Renaissance Technologies LLC holds $4.7M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • Citadel Advisors LLC holds $8.1M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • FMR LLC (Fidelity) holds $61.5M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +3

  • Bridgewater Associates LP holds $8.7M (13F 2025-09-30)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +3

  • short-volume tape softening: latest 47.9% fell 6.7pp vs 19d avg 54.6%

    FINRA short interest· source

    +1

  • Short interest fell -19.5% as of 2026-04-30 (twice-monthly FINRA)

    FINRA short interest· source

    +1
Fund. & Earn.4 / 35

  • Profitable (6.5% net margin)

    10-Q + 10-K· source

    +1

  • Forward P/E 10.2 (reasonable)

    Sector comps + FMP· source

    +2

  • Analyst target $31.36 >5% above 52w high

    Earnings releases (8-K)· source

    +1
Technicals0 / 15
    Macro3.3 / 10

    • VIX 15.3 (low volatility) as of 2026-05-29

      Macro composite· source

      +15.3

    • 10y-2y spread 47bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-29

      Macro composite· source

      +0.47

    • Industrial Production 102.5 (mild expansion) as of 2026-04-01

      Macro composite· source

      +102.5

    • Initial claims 215,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 1.01, neutral)

      Macro composite· source

      +1.01

    • CPI YoY 3.95% (hot vs Fed target)

      Macro composite· source

      +3.95

    • HY OAS 2.74pp at 8th-pct trailing-90d (tight credit spread)

      Macro composite· source

      +2.74

    • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

      Macro composite· source

      +0.16

    • Retail sales 4.87% YoY (RSAFS)

      Macro composite· source

      +4.87

    • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 49.8 (weak) as of 2026-04-01

      Macro composite· source

      +49.8

    • 10y-3m spread 76bps (positive) as of 2026-05-29

      Macro composite· source

      +0.76

    • Net liquidity (Fed assets - reverse repo - TGA) +$156B over 4 weeks (rising)

      Macro composite· source

      +1
    Recommendation receipt

    Source chain partially linked.

    Recommendation cmpvz9f212... collapses 1 same-day signal into one public track-record row. The raw upstream receipts are checked here before the OpenTimestamps hash below.

    0.0%
    linked
    1
    event
    1
    sources
    1
    signals
    Source coverage0 / 1
    SEC EDGAR 13F0/1 linked
    Latest source events

    • SEC EDGAR 13F

      FILING 13F FUND FLOW · 2026-05-15

      legacy
    Prior source recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
    SEC EDGAR 13F+1.00%
    D7
    +1.00%
    n=96 · 59% hit
    D15
    n/a
    D30
    n/a
    Prior actor recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
    TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP

    13F filer

    +1.33%
    D7
    +1.33%
    n=81 · 63% hit
    D15
    n/a
    D30
    n/a
    Cryptographic proof

    Proof queued.

    At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

    How OpenTimestamps works

    Anchoring queued. Refresh after a moment to see the .ots proof.

    Signal payload hash
    e2ec488d475f2e83e76a9222717924e487e43a800fefc021eeb8e886bac75108
    Timestamp
    2026-06-02 01:36 UTC
    Ticker
    SFD
    Direction
    Long
    Issued price
    $26.03
    Bitcoin block
    Queued